Leading through uncertain times
This last week Dubai has been extraordinary. I normally use that word to describe something positive, but it’s the best way I can define the past seven days. For a region known as one of the safest places to live, this period feels unprecedented.
So, what does this mean for businesses?
Short term, this means higher costs, operational disruption and cautious investment decisions are likely to be the order of the day, along with a distracted and depleted workforce. Beyond travel, tourism and events being paused, most business sectors are feeling the impact of continued uncertainty more than anything else. If disruption to shipping and energy routes continues, cost pressures will follow. But it’s people resilience and the impact on business resilience that is the big issue as we seek to balance empathy and economics.
The longer-term impact of course very much depends on how long the conflict continues and when the business climate, investor confidence and worker sentiment return to normal. What I am hearing tends to fall into the following categories ‘let’s hold off on this investment, until we know what is happening’, ‘let’s take this as an opportunity to consider our strategy, if people want to leave, what call do we make?’, ‘where should we be diversifying/shifting trade routes?’, ‘I am worried about coming into work’, ‘my team are anxious and pre-occupied’.
Despite the acuteness of the perceived risk climate, the UAE and the GCC are once again demonstrating their ability to navigate disruptions as they did back in 2020. Every day I hear an interception, but I tell my kids this is the UAE Government keeping us safe. The GCC has a track record of bouncing back with vigour following unforseen events and setbacks. And on a positive note, if we successfully maintain infrastructure and stability we could retain or even strengthen the local position as the UAE being a key commercial centre. For more on buisness resilience, check out Marsh’s webinar serieson the potential impact on supply chains, investment, insurance and cybersecurity - that you can find here.
What did we learn from other ‘extraordinary times’?
The 2008 GFC and the 2020 Covid era taught us a few things that I believe are relevant:
- Resilience and diversification are critical. Companies with diversified markets, suppliers and revenue streams recover faster.
- Crises accelerates opportunities. Covid drove digital transformation and new ways of working. This event will also stimulate new industries, habits and processes.
- A strong balance sheet and adaptability provide options. Businesses that conserved cash, adapted quickly and adjusted strategies were better placed to rebound when the market returned. This applied equally to businesses and people.
In short, extraordinary events force innovation, reshape markets and reward those that build an adaptability and resilient mindset in their people.
What employees’ need from leaders?
If I look at the Middle East employee data that we collected at the end of last year, we already had a workforce that was feeling concerned about the future of work. Workers were seeking clarity, honesty and optimism and I see these events only underscoring these needs. During this period, I find it good to remind myself that colleagues appreciate:
- Authentic and honest communication: what we know, what we don’t know and what the company is doing about it. This helps reduce speculation.
- Direction and priorities: reassurance that the company is there for them and clarity on the top most critical work priorities to help reduce the noise and anxiety.
- Support and empathy: acknowledge uncertainty, listen to concerns and demonstrate listening so they know it’s a 2-way dialogue. Sometimes it’s just about having a forum to chat/ daily touchpoints.
- Consistency and visibility: we cling to routines and rituals, both of which are being distorted. Providing stability and being present regularly helps to build trust. This helps create confidence and can boost morale.
Advice to my HR colleagues
- Focus on well-being, including your own. Workers look to you to set the tone and create space for honest dialogue, but you also need your own release valve. Set this up now so that you are not overly taxing family and friends who are also going through this period. If in an international role, find a buddy out of the region. If local, find someone in a parallel role inside or outside of the organisation. Ensure that you have a strong well-being and support system for your workforce and for you - this will serve you well.
- Be present, be real, activate your leaders. We don’t have answers and that’s okay, but build your FAQs on matters that leaders might be asked about. Ensure they’ve set up a regular communication/listening cadence. Help them to prioritise critical roles and know the skills they need to navigate disruption.
- Scenario plan the business impact. Being at the table is knowing what the near term and longer-term business impact will be. These could include employee engagement levels, costs of expatriates moving and the readiness of the workforce to adapt. To lead with foresight, you can leverage AI tools for scenario planning to evaluate the potential impact on the business in cases of unlikely and severe scenarios.
One thing i've found helpful recently is using AI tools for a summary of the situation and monitoring flight details (an early indicator). I find these routes less emotive than reading the press directly and I can tailor LLMs to my exacting needs. For example, this is the area I live in, this is the industry I am working in, what is your assessment of how the current tensions might affect my family and I? What should I be sharing with colleagues and friends? I have also found value and optimsim in using the following prompt: ‘why is [my location] especially resilient and what makes this country unique in coming out strong from these setbacks?’
I hope you found some of the above useful, I believe sharing is a must. Being present and connected is the constant. If you are keen to hear more around worker well-being strategies and what signals to take heed of, join us on our upcoming webinar next Monday where we will be sharing some practical strategies for navigating through this extraordinary time.
At Mercer, we remain committed to providing practical support through both stable and uncertain periods. If you need support on supply chain implications, moving expatriates across borders, listening strategies and/or some over the shoulder coaching as you deal with HR related matters, drop me a message and let’s chat. If I can’t help, I may know someone else who can. In the meantime, stay positive, stay safe. If you feel inclined to share what's working for you at this time, I'd love to hear.
Contributor
Kate BraveryLeading through uncertain times
This last week Dubai has been extraordinary. I normally use that word to describe something positive, but it’s the best way I can define the past seven days. For a region known as one of the safest places to live, this period feels unprecedented.
So, what does this mean for businesses?
Short term, this means higher costs, operational disruption and cautious investment decisions are likely to be the order of the day, along with a distracted and depleted workforce. Beyond travel, tourism and events being paused, most business sectors are feeling the impact of continued uncertainty more than anything else. If disruption to shipping and energy routes continues, cost pressures will follow. But it’s people resilience and the impact on business resilience that is the big issue as we seek to balance empathy and economics.
The longer-term impact of course very much depends on how long the conflict continues and when the business climate, investor confidence and worker sentiment return to normal. What I am hearing tends to fall into the following categories ‘let’s hold off on this investment, until we know what is happening’, ‘let’s take this as an opportunity to consider our strategy, if people want to leave, what call do we make?’, ‘where should we be diversifying/shifting trade routes?’, ‘I am worried about coming into work’, ‘my team are anxious and pre-occupied’.
Despite the acuteness of the perceived risk climate, the UAE and the GCC are once again demonstrating their ability to navigate disruptions as they did back in 2020. Every day I hear an interception, but I tell my kids this is the UAE Government keeping us safe. The GCC has a track record of bouncing back with vigour following unforseen events and setbacks. And on a positive note, if we successfully maintain infrastructure and stability we could retain or even strengthen the local position as the UAE being a key commercial centre. For more on buisness resilience, check out Marsh’s webinar serieson the potential impact on supply chains, investment, insurance and cybersecurity - that you can find here.
What did we learn from other ‘extraordinary times’?
The 2008 GFC and the 2020 Covid era taught us a few things that I believe are relevant:
In short, extraordinary events force innovation, reshape markets and reward those that build an adaptability and resilient mindset in their people.
What employees’ need from leaders?
If I look at the Middle East employee data that we collected at the end of last year, we already had a workforce that was feeling concerned about the future of work. Workers were seeking clarity, honesty and optimism and I see these events only underscoring these needs. During this period, I find it good to remind myself that colleagues appreciate:
Advice to my HR colleagues
One thing i've found helpful recently is using AI tools for a summary of the situation and monitoring flight details (an early indicator). I find these routes less emotive than reading the press directly and I can tailor LLMs to my exacting needs. For example, this is the area I live in, this is the industry I am working in, what is your assessment of how the current tensions might affect my family and I? What should I be sharing with colleagues and friends? I have also found value and optimsim in using the following prompt: ‘why is [my location] especially resilient and what makes this country unique in coming out strong from these setbacks?’
I hope you found some of the above useful, I believe sharing is a must. Being present and connected is the constant. If you are keen to hear more around worker well-being strategies and what signals to take heed of, join us on our upcoming webinar next Monday where we will be sharing some practical strategies for navigating through this extraordinary time.
At Mercer, we remain committed to providing practical support through both stable and uncertain periods. If you need support on supply chain implications, moving expatriates across borders, listening strategies and/or some over the shoulder coaching as you deal with HR related matters, drop me a message and let’s chat. If I can’t help, I may know someone else who can. In the meantime, stay positive, stay safe. If you feel inclined to share what's working for you at this time, I'd love to hear.